Wednesday, July 29, 2009

FORECAST GU,EU & GOLD

Eur/Usd H4 Graph















H4 graph
After the pair rebounded from key resistance 1.4260
(“E” trend line and the higher bound of “M-M+” daily trend),
it broke the lower bound of “a-a+” uptrend (went below level 1.4200).
This is an evidence of the beginning of downtrend development.

A “diamond” figure is being formed now, which is supposed to be
a turning figure and lead the pair to level 1.3990 under condition
that it drops below 1.4110. Rebounding off resistance 1.4260 and
breaking the “a-a+” trend both are speaking in favor of described scenario.
Drop below 1.4110 will allow the pair to exit from “H-H+” uptrend
and to drop further to level 1.3990. The pair will also pass level 1.4060
(“K” trend line) on its way down. After getting under all those levels,
the market will have nothing left to do except dropping to support level 1.3930
(the lower bound of “M-M+” daily sideways trend).
That’s why, we already can state that getting to level 1.3930
is just a question of time since an entire technical picture
of EUR/USD is inclined to this variant.

My advise is to sell the pair after it drops below level 1.4110,
with target set to 1.3930/60 and stop loss set to 1.4190


Eur/Usd Daily Graph













Eur/Usd Weekly Graph















Weekly graph
The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400
formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly.
These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes
through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance
of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so,
basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level
(we shall examine daily graph for details). In the 4th correctional wave,
the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285
and then, in the 5th wave, it will head to the maximum 1.4720 to update it
(level 1.4720 update is assumed by the picture at daily graph
as well as by the fact that “Y” trend line got broken).
All these five waves will make up the “D-D+” uptrend;
its extremum will be found at resistance level 1.4935 or 1.5300.



Eur/Usd Monthly Graph















Gbp/Usd H4 Graph














H4 graph
Beginning of a downtrend approaches. The pair is forming a “diamond” figure,
and if it drops below level 1.6380 (“N” trend line),
downtrend development will take effect. The downtrend’s downside target
will be set to level 1.5980 then.

Downward momentum may be empowered by the fact of dropping
below key level 1.6300. In such case the pair will get to support
1.6115 (“V” trend line), from where a correction to resistance
level 1.6300 is possible. Next, the pair will get down to support
level 1.5980 (the lower bound of “M-M+” daily sideways trend).

I recommend starting to sell below level 1.6360, adding below 1.6270,
with target set to 1.6025 and stop loss set to 1.6475.



Gbp/Usd Daily Graph















Daily graph
After getting over level 1.5300 (breaking the “Y-Y+” trend’s higher bound)
the pair had set its target of growth to resistance level 1.6200 (“H” trend line).
This level is meant to be reached in the course of “C-C+” uptrend.
Upon reaching it and completing the 3rd up-trending wave,
a correction is supposed to happen to support level 1.5300 (the 4th correctional wave).



Gbp/Usd Weekly Graph















Weekly graph
After getting over level 1.5300 (breaking the “Y-Y+” trend’s higher bound)
the pair had set its target of growth to resistance level 1.6900 (“F” trend line).
This level is meant to be reached in the course of “D-D+” uptrend.
Upon reaching it, an intermediate resistance – level 1.6200
(“H” trend line and levels of Japanese candles) – will appear on the pair’s way.
Due to the fact that 1.6200 is an important resistance, a correction is meant
to follow from there and end up at support level 1.5300.
Uptrend within the “D-D+” channel will be resumed from
the same level and the pair will reach the target 1.6900.
“D-D+” trend is completed in five waves.



Gbp/Usd Monthly Graph















Monthly graph
Bounce off level 1.3900 (“R” trend line) had provoked a rapid growth of the pair.
The peak of growth is meant to be found at level 1.6900 (“F” trend line).
Upon reaching this level there will be two variants of events to develop:

1. Having bounced off level 1.6900 and after the “D-D+” weekly trend is broken,
the pair will get to support 1.4355.
2. If level 1.6900 is unable to show a sufficient resistance
(the pair goes above this level), the pair will reach resistance 1.8530.


Gold H4 Graph













H4 graph
Gold rose above level 922 (above the higher bound of “a-a+” downtrend),
what cleared the road up to resistance level 939 (the higher bound of “B-B+” trend).
In case the gold rises above level 942, it will get to level 952.
On the other hand, if the gold rebounds from current level 938,
it will get down to support 919.


Gold Daily Graph















Daily graph
Having stopped slightly below the strategic resistance level 998 (“Z” trend line),
gold eventually formed up a “double top” trend-turning figure at H4 graph
(denoted as “a-a+” trend) and executed it after getting under the level 967.
Such an event is a very important signal for “B-B+” daily trend’s turn.
I’m expecting its lower bound to be broken shortly and,
if gold goes under the level 945 (under the “B” trend line),
the uptrend will be changed to downtrend and gold will set
the target of lowering to support level 903.


Gold Monthly Graph